**Win Contribution**" is my own invention, derived from the work done by those who created the "

**Win Score**" metric.

**Win Contribution**is, in simple terms, a multiplication of each player's "Position Adjusted Win Score" by his percentage of overall playing time.

**Here's how it works.**If you add up every player's Win Contribution, and plug it into the formula below, you can very accurately calculate the team's expected win total. As a result, each player's "Win Contribution" is a precise numerical expression of the impact that player has had on making his team either a winning or a losing team.

That's because if the sum of every player's Win Contribution adds up to ".000", the expected win total for the team would be dead even,

*i.e.*you would have a .500 team. Thus, any Win Contribution number that is positive indicates the player has contributed to making the team a winning team. And the opposite is true for negative Win Contribution numbers.

**Here's a rough guide to how to read the number**:

A Win Contribution of "+ .500" means that if you surrounded that player with a roster of average players (meaning players who all have Win Contributions of .000), you could expect a winning percentage of roughly .603, or a seasonal record of about 50-32. On the other hand, if a player's Win Contribution is "-.500" that means if you surrounded that player with a roster of average players you could expect a winning percentage of roughly .433, or a seasonal record of about 35-47.

**Example:**

**The Bucks Total Win Contribution from every player adds up to -1.096. The Bucks current Total Player Minutes (53 games * 48 minutes/game * 5 players) = 12820 minutes**

**MILWAUKEE BUCKS ESTIMATED WINS CALCULATION**

**Step 1: -1.096/48 = -.0228**

**Step 2: -.0228 * 1.621= -.0370**

**Step 3: -.0370 + .104= .0669**

**Step 4: .0669/48 = .0013**

**Step 5: .0013 * 12820 = 17.89**

**ESTIMATED WINS: 18**

**ACTUAL WINS: 19**

## No comments:

Post a Comment